How Much
Bullshit?
Every story gets a rating for how much bullshit we think is going on, and how badly it needs to change or go to a royal commission.
The Three Levels
Spin, half-truths and convenient leaving-out. It needs fixing.
Public money, public power and private gain in the same room. It needs a proper inquiry.
Harm on a national scale and nobody held to account. It needs a royal commission, and charges where the evidence supports them.
How They Make You Believe a Narrative
The cuts didn’t sell themselves. The government paid for research on how to sell them.
RedBridge advised the NDIA on how to make unpopular changes more acceptable. Its October 2023 research tested tighter access for children with developmental delay and one worker to three people in supported living.[1]
People strongly opposed both when they were described as cost cuts. Putting benefits and protections first produced “a degree of tolerance”. The advice was blunt.[1]
The research also found people saw a crackdown on fraud as a more believable reason for the review than improving the scheme.[1]
In March 2024, Bill Shorten cited RedBridge’s findings on public compassion for the scheme, then moved on to criminal providers, exploitation and the need for reform.[2]
“We therefore do not recommend discussing either reform in isolation.”
RedBridge, research for the NDIA, October 2023.[1]
Fraud Is Real. It’s Also Small.
Fraud happens, and it should be prosecuted. Cutting a person’s hours is something else. Both save money. Only one of them stops a crook.
Of the $38.1 billion in forecast savings
$ billion, four years from 2026–27
Every pricing, fraud and integrity measure together comes to about 9.7% of the total. The single daily-activities reset is more than three times bigger.[3]
The advocacy site ndiswasteclock.com counts the other side: an estimated economic loss of about $21.26 billion a year, or $674 a second, using a 2.25 multiplier on the projected cash savings. It’s a model, not an audit, and it says so.[4]
The Nudge Unit
BETA, the Behavioural Economics Team of the Australian Government, sits inside the Prime Minister’s department. Since 2016 it has tested how wording, order and defaults change what people do. By May 2026 it had finished more than 150 projects.[5]
The wording of a letter can change whether someone appeals. When your income or care is on the line, people deserve to know what’s being tested on them and what it found.
The Robodebt Playbook
Rachelle Miller, Alan Tudge’s former media adviser, told the Royal Commission she placed stories with friendly media, including A Current Affair and 2GB, about catching welfare cheats.[6]
The line was that the government was “cracking down on welfare cheats”. Meanwhile, people were ringing the minister’s office to say their debts were wrong.[6]
How Fucked Is It?
We checked every story against its sources, then measured it against the rules the public service, charities, companies and regulators say they follow. Overall rating: Industrial Quantities.
The Rules We Measured Against
- Public servants. The APS Values and Code of Conduct: honest, evidence-based advice, accountability, and declaring conflicts.[7][8] The PGPA Act duties on care, good faith, use of position and disclosing interests.[9] APSC guidance on conflicts after leaving.[10]
- Lobbying. The Commonwealth Lobbying Code and its cooling-off periods.[11]
- Charities. The ACNC Governance Standards, especially Standard 5.[12]
- Companies. Directors’ duties under the Corporations Act and the ASX governance principles.[13][14]
- Competition. What the ACCC says it does, and the merger rules in force from 1 January 2026.[15]
- Spending. The Commonwealth Procurement Rules on value for money.[16]
- Integrity. The NACC Act definition of corrupt conduct, and what the Robodebt Royal Commission and the NACC found.[17][18]
- Rights. The Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, the Australian Privacy Principles and the NDIS Code of Conduct.[19][20][21]
Sources
- NDIA, FOI 24/25-0265 decision documents, released 20 December 2024, including RedBridge research reports from October 2023. https://www.righttoknow.org.au/request/11914/response/39139/attach/11/FOI%2024.25%200265%20Decision%20Documents.pdf?cookie_passthrough=1
- Bill Shorten, opinion piece for the West Australian, 28 March 2024. https://formerministers.dss.gov.au/20328/opinion-piece-for-the-west-australian-2/
- Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, FOI 26-3289, Budget Estimates briefs, released September 2026. Document 11, PDF pp. 46–47: reform costing by category. https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-09/foi-26-3289-budget-estimates.pdf
- NDISWasteClock, The Cost of Cuts, and its published method, accessed 6 October 2026. https://ndiswasteclock.com/
- Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 10 years of BETA, 4 May 2026. https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/10-years-beta
- Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme, hearing day 28, 31 January 2023, evidence of Rachelle Miller, transcript pp. 2791–2793. https://robodebt.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2023-02/transcript-hearing-day-28-31-january-2023.pdf
- Australian Public Service Commission, APS Values, Public Service Act 1999 s10. The APS is impartial, committed to service, accountable, respectful and ethical, and gives frank, honest advice based on the best available evidence. https://www.apsc.gov.au/aps-values
- Australian Public Service Commission, elements of the APS Code of Conduct, Public Service Act 1999 s13, including the duty to disclose and avoid conflicts of interest. https://www.apsc.gov.au/resources/circulars-guidance-and-advice/handling-misconduct-human-resource-managers-guide/appendix-2-elements-aps-code-conduct
- Department of Finance, PGPA Act s29: duty to disclose material personal interests, with ss25 to 28 on care, good faith, use of position and use of information. https://www.finance.gov.au/government/managing-commonwealth-resources/general-duties-officials-rmg-203/duty-disclose-interests
- Australian Public Service Commission, Leaving the APS: post-separation conflict of interest. https://www.apsc.gov.au/working-aps/integrity/aps-conflict-interest-management/guidance-employees-and-managers/leaving-aps-post-separation-conflict-interest
- Attorney-General’s Department, Lobbying Code of Conduct. Former ministers face an 18-month ban on lobbying in their old portfolio; senior officials face 12 months. It covers third-party lobbyists, not people lobbying for their own employer. https://www.ag.gov.au/integrity/publications/lobbying-code-conduct
- Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission, Governance Standards, including Standard 5: act honestly and fairly in the charity’s best interests and manage conflicts of interest. https://www.acnc.gov.au/for-charities/manage-your-charity/governance-hub/governance-standards
- ASIC, managing your director obligations: Corporations Act 2001 ss180 to 183 on care, good faith and improper use of position or information. https://www.asic.gov.au/for-business-and-companies/small-business-director-essentials/managing-your-director-obligations
- ASX Corporate Governance Council, Corporate Governance Principles and Recommendations. https://www.asx.com.au/about/regulation/asx-corporate-governance-council
- ACCC, about the ACCC: it says it promotes competition and fair trading and enforces the Competition and Consumer Act 2010. Mergers and acquisitions: from 1 January 2026, certain acquisitions must be notified and approved first. https://www.accc.gov.au/about-us/accc-role-and-structure/about-the-accc https://www.accc.gov.au/business/mergers-and-acquisitions
- Department of Finance, Commonwealth Procurement Rules, value for money: public resources must be used in an efficient, effective, economical and ethical way. https://www.finance.gov.au/government/procurement/commonwealth-procurement-rules/value-money
- National Anti-Corruption Commission, what is corrupt conduct: breach of public trust, abuse of office and misuse of official information. Robodebt referrals investigation report, 11 March 2026. https://www.nacc.gov.au/report-corruption/what-investigate/what-corrupt-conduct https://www.nacc.gov.au/news-and-media/nacc-publishes-investigation-report-robodebt-referrals
- Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme, report, 7 July 2023. https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/robodebt/report
- United Nations, Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, including article 19 (living in the community, with choices equal to others) and article 22 (privacy). https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/convention-rights-persons-disabilities
- Office of the Australian Information Commissioner, Australian Privacy Principles, including APP 6 on use and disclosure for a secondary purpose. https://www.oaic.gov.au/privacy/australian-privacy-principles/read-the-australian-privacy-principles
- NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission, NDIS Code of Conduct, which binds all providers and workers. https://www.ndiscommission.gov.au/rules-and-standards/ndis-code-conduct